10/08/2008 - Winston-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons are set to host the Clemson Tigers Thursday night in an important ACC clash.
Clemson got crushed by Alabama in the season opener, but the team rallied to record victories in each of its next three games. Unfortunately, the streak came to an end in the most recent outing, a 20-17 setback against Maryland. Clemson has had two weeks to prepare for this clash with Wake Forest, and while clearly the underdog, the Tigers undoubtedly have the talent to win the contest.
The Demon Deacons opened their season with three straight wins, including narrow decisions over Ole Miss and Florida State. Their last outing resulted in a surprising loss, however, as Navy invaded Winston-Salem and left with a 24-17 victory. Wake, like Clemson, has been idle for two weeks, so there is no excuse if the team comes out and loses again in front of the home crowd.
Clemson owns a commanding 56-16-1 advantage in the all-time series with Wake Forest, including two straight wins over the Demon Deacons. Last season, the Tigers rolled to a 44-10 victory in Death Valley.
Clemson is averaging 385.8 total ypg, and of the 17 offensive touchdowns that the squad has managed this season, 13 have come on the ground. The Tigers have two outstanding tailbacks in James Davis and C.J. Spiller. Davis has rushed for 375 yards and five scores, while Spiller is close behind with his 304 yards and five touchdowns. While Spiller was limited against Maryland last time out with a foot injury, he is expected to play against Wake Forest.
Taking the snaps for Clemson with be Cullen Harper as usual. He has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 944 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions, and his total of scoring passes is far off the pace of what most fans and analysts expected. "C.J. and James played extremely well today; however, our mistakes outweighed the positives in today's game," said Clemson coach Tommy Bowden after the painful loss to Maryland last time out. Spiller and Davis, who both had long touchdown runs in the clash, combined for 224 rushing yards. Unfortunately, the Tigers committed three turnovers and were 4- of-12 on third down conversion attempts.
Opponents are only generating 316.2 total ypg against Clemson, which is yielding 115.4 rushing ypg on an average of 3.5 ypc. The pass defense has been solid, as opposing quarterbacks have eight interceptions with five touchdown passes against the Tigers. Kavell Conner leads Clemson with 49 total tackles, 13 more than his closest teammate.
Aside from the opening game against Alabama, in which the defense was pushed around a bit, the Tigers have held their other four opponents to 20 or fewer points. "I'm upset that we lost, upset that we couldn't get ourselves off the field and put ourselves in a better situation," said Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers following the loss to Maryland. The Terps managed only a pair of field goals in the first half, but they scored two touchdowns in the second half to win the game. Clemson failed to force a single turnover in the contest.
The reason for Wake Forest's loss to Navy is quite simple. The Demon Deacons committed six turnovers in the clash, and considering that fact it is surprising that they only fell by seven points. "You can't turn the ball over like that and expect to win the ballgame," said quarterback Riley Skinner after the loss. "I should have taken what they gave me." Skinner tossed four interceptions, helping Navy beat its first ranked opponent since 1985. D.J. Boldin led the Demon Deacons with eight catches for 116 yards, and while he does have a hand injury, Boldin is expected to play against Clemson. While the passing game generated 270 yards, the Wake ground attack was limited to 43 yards on 31 attempts.
The Demon Deacons are averaging 25.0 ppg and 328.2 total ypg. Considering that they are rushing for only 84.8 ypg on 2.4 ypc, a great deal of pressure falls on the arm of Skinner to move the ball and score points. The quarterback has completed 68.9 percent of his passes for 974 yards with six scores, and the four interceptions against Navy were his first four of the season.
"We tried our best to simulate their offense but there is no way to go as fast as they went out there today," said Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith who was asked about the challenge of defending an option offense. The Midshipmen were able to rush for 292 yards and control the clock for nearly 37 minutes. Navy only threw the ball four times, so the Deacs were able to focus on stopping the run on almost every play. Still, they were unable to get the job done.
Opponents are scoring 17.0 ppg against Wake, which is allowing 293.2 total ypg. The Demon Deacons have surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing offenses and have done a decent job against both the run and the pass. With nine interceptions and eight fumble recoveries, the club has been extremely opportunistic. Kevin Patterson has three interceptions to his credit.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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