Aqueduct begins stakes for three-year-olds

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Horsemen with horses stabled in the Northeast can begin thinking intently about where to run their three-year-olds leading to the Triple Crown races. This Saturday the first event at Aqueduct for Kentucky Derby hopefuls takes place with the running of the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes.

"I think a $150,000 race puts you on the map, and this is a race that can be a stepping stone," said Art Magnuson, assistant to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, whose Alpha is the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the mile and 70 yard Count Fleet. "We do think about the future with Alpha, and hope he's a Derby-type horse."

A son of 2006 champion three-year-old colt Bernardini, Alpha is owned by Godolphin Racing and has drawn post five in the seven-horse field. The colt has earned $90,000 in three starts, highlighted by a second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November the colt disappointed by finishing 11th to Hansen with favorite Union Rags finishing a head behind in second.

"We sent him to New York last Wednesday, and he worked very well this morning," said McLaughlin on Monday about Alpha who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. "We have several three-year-olds we think highly of, including Alpha and Consortium and some others who haven't started yet, and we're trying to split them up. We have had great success in New York with our runners during the winter. At the Breeders' Cup, he lost it in the gate, and we're hoping he will step up off that effort. He's a nice horse."

The 4-1 second choice is Chuck Russo's Il Villano who has Jose Flores riding from the inside post. Trained by Susan Crowell, the gray colt is the winner of three straight including the Lord Henribee Stakes at Aqueduct on November 6 and Southampton Stakes at Parx Racing on December 6. The three-year-old has banked $125,300, the most of the seven starters.

The only other stakes winner in the Count Fleet is Shkspeare Shaliya who won the Pilgrim on the turf at Belmont Park on October 2. The colt will break from the outside post with Jose Valdivia Jr. in the saddle.

"I have been wanting to try this horse on dirt," said trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal about the 10-1 shot. "I'm an Aqueduct person and I am a New Yorker; on top of that, he has a good turn of foot, and has Clever Trick in his breeding, which is why I chose this spot. The distance is a little short for him, but my whole dream is to give him a shot and see what he can do on dirt."

Shkspeare Shaliya last started in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished ninth at 9-1 in the 14-horse field. With two wins in four starts the colt has earned $96,700 and is the 122 pound highweight.

From the rail out here is the complete field for the Count Fleet: Il Villano, Jose Flores, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 12-1; Whistleblower, Ariel Smith, 20-1; Stephanoatsee, Junior Alvarado, 6-1; Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 4-5; Speightscity, David Cohen, 8-1 and Shkspeare Shaliyah, Jose Valdivia Jr., 10-1.

Vwgas Horseracing Betting News

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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