10/08/2008 - Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Buffaloes will attempt to halt a two-game losing streak on Saturday, although the 16th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks are the favorite in this weekend's Big 12 matchup.
Colorado opened the season with three straight wins, including a thrilling overtime decision over West Virginia. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes have been beaten in succession by Florida State and Texas by wide margins. Last weekend's 38-14 beating at the hands of the Longhorns in Boulder suggested that Colorado isn't on the same level as the conference's elite teams.
Kansas is trying to prove that it is a member of that elite class, but the club has played shaky football recently. Kansas is attempting to start conference play with a 2-0 record for the second straight season and just the third time since the inception of the Big 12 back in 1996. The Jayhawks are fresh off a come-from-behind victory over Iowa State in the league opener, as the club rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit to post a 35-33 win. Kansas owns the nations fourth-longest active home field winning streak at 12 straight, and they carry a 4-1 overall record into Saturday's clash.
While Colorado holds a 41-23-2 series lead over Kansas, the Jayhawks have won the last two meetings.
"We always feel like you have to be able to run the football a little bit to keep your offense going," said Colorado coach Dan Hawkins following the loss to Texas. "When we didn't run it like we wanted to, then it became a big adjustment game." So how ineffective was the ground attack against the Longhorns? Well, the Buffs only produced 49 rushing yards on 28 attempts. That put a great deal of pressure on quarterback Cody Hawkins to make plays with his arm, and he was unable to do so. Hawkins completed only 13-of-33 passes for 118 yards, and while he did throw one touchdown pass, the over performance wasn't great by any means.
Hawkins has now thrown for 926 yards this season with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. Rodney Stewart is the club's best tailback, and he needs to play much better against Kansas than he did against Texas. Of course, the play of the offensive line will go a long way in determining Stewart's success, and the big boys up front were pushed around by the Longhorns.
"We knew they were very good and that we'd have to play very well to get some things going," said coach Hawkins when speaking of Texas. "You don't ever come in with a negative attitude necessarily, but we knew they were good." Texas racked up 25 first downs and 431 total yards against Colorado, which allowed five touchdowns to the Longhorn offense. Sure, the Buffaloes did register a pair of interceptions and four sacks, but there were a few big plays made by Texas.
Heading into the game against the Longhorns, Colorado was playing much better against the pass than the run. Texas was able to find success through both means of attack. The fact that the Buffaloes have yielded 77 combined points the last two games suggests that there are major defensive problems in need of a quick fix.
At intermission against Iowa State last weekend, Kansas had posted just 93 yards and only five first downs. The Jayhawks went three and out on each of their first three possessions and looked completely out of sync. Fortunately, football is a game of two halves, and Kansas scored touchdowns on five of its six drives after intermission. Standout quarterback Todd Reesing was 10-of-12 for 260 yards and three touchdowns in the second half to finish the game 18- of-26 for 319 yards. "The first half we struggled to get anything going," said Reesing. I made a bad throw and had interceptions. It was atrocious. We came out in the second half and it really clicked and showed what we can do when we're all on the same page." Kerry Meier hauled in seven balls for 125 yards and two scores, and he tied the school record with his third straight game with more than 100 yards receiving. Jake Sharp contributed 186 all-purpose yards for Kansas, which is now averaging 35.2 ppg and 465.6 total ypg.
Reesing is grossly undersized by most standards, but he is one of the top signal callers in the nation. He has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,724 yards and 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions. Meier has 44 catches for 514 yards, while Dezmon Briscoe has five receiving scores. The ground attack has been average thus far, and Angus Quigley has been the most productive back.
Iowa State posted 365 yards and 33 points against Kansas last weekend, so there is obviously plenty of room for improvement on defense for the Jayhawks. They did post a pair of takeaways while also limiting the Cyclones to 4-of-15 on third down conversion attempts, but the overall performance was suspect at best. "There were some technical adjustments made by our defensive staff," said coach Mark Mangino when asked about the improvement of the defense from the first half to the second. "I thought we were a little cautious in the secondary with kids that didn't want to get beat over the top. They're getting better."
Opponents are scoring 18.8 ppg against Kansas, which is holding foes to 95.2 rushing ypg. The pass defense is yielding 227.6 ypg but does have more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns allowed (six). James Holt and Joe Mortensen are tied for the team lead with 32 tackles apiece. Holt has forced three fumbles, and Jake Laptad has 3.5 sacks to his credit.
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While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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